Conference Dates

June 18-21, 2006


The catastrophic Indian Ocean tsunami of 26 December 2004 raised a number of questions for scientists and politicians on how to deal with the tsunami risk in coastal regions. This paper discusses the challenges in tsunami risk evaluation and presents the results of a tsunami risk mitigation study for the west coast of Thailand. It is argued that a scenario-based approach is particularly well suited for evaluation of the risk posed by tsunamis. The approach consists of considering scenarios of plausible extreme, tsunami-generating events, computing the tsunami inundation levels caused by these events, estimating the possible range of casualties for the computed inundation levels, and estimating the upper and lower bounds on the annual probability of occurrence of the scenarios. Other challenges related to perceived risk vs. real risk, acceptable/tolerable risk levels, and the use of the results in the decision making process are also put into perspectives.

Nadim_Glade_tsunami_risk.pdf (480 kB)