Conference Dates

June 18-21, 2006


A physically-based numerical method is presented for displacements hazard analyses, at large-scale, in the case of landslides characterized by movements along pre-existing slip surfaces induced by rainfall-triggered pore pressure fluctuations. The method comprises a transient seepage finite element analysis and a kinematic model. With reference to the latter, the rates of displacement are assumed to be of the viscous type and are related to the factors of safety along the slip surface computed performing time-dependent limit equilibrium analyses. Monitoring data from an active slide in Central Italy are then used both for calibrating the models, by means of an inverse analysis procedure that minimizes the errors between numerically computed results and available observations, and for validating the results of the calibrated models. Subsequently, the calibrated and validated models are used to predict the response of the slope to different rainfall scenarios. The proposed method has been named “R-u-F-v prediction.”

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